COLUMN: Evaluating the North Stars season at the halfway mark

The forward group as a whole have exceeded expectations.

Layne Young’s ability to score was never in doubt. Getting Coby Downs back was a huge addition, but even having him back didn’t guarantee goals would sustain themselves long term. Same goes for Reed Delainey, who is a dynamic centre, but can only create so much offence on his own.

The difference has been the “20-line” of Keaton Holinaty, Brett Horn, and Connor Logan, as well as the emergence of Ben Allen, who has solidified his spot on the top line with Downs and Young.

When Igor Leonenko, Jake McMillen and Dustin Gorgi left after last year, 109 goals evaporated into thin air. Downs and Young couldn’t make that up on their own, so who would score?

The second line plus Allen have combined for 41 goals at the midway point and have a combined points-per-game of 0.84, which equates to 49 points over a full season. It’s unlikely that all four will finish the year with over 40 points, but even if three of them hover around 45-50 points, that would go a long way to securing a top spot in the league, assuming Downs, Young, and Delainey keep up their point-per-game pace (an assumption I think is fair to make).

The other thing to ask yourselves when it comes to this forward group is: have they been lucky? The North Stars have scored 116 goals in 29 games (not counting shootout goals), which is four goals a game. Isn’t that a lot?

Well, no, it isn’t, not when you’re outshooting your opponent every single game (except once, when they tied Weyburn) and averaging 41.5 shots on goal per game. The North Stars shooting percentage is completely normal at 9.63 per cent, meaning they aren’t getting lucky like the Estevan Bruins are, who are scoring on 12.03 per cent of their shots. If you think two per cent isn’t a big difference, remember that translates to a difference of two goals for every 100 shots on goal. The North Stars have fired 1204 shots on target so far this year, so that two per cent makes a difference over time.

Has the forward group exceeded expectations? Yes.

Can it continue? I also say yes, because the numbers show the team has the depth that is needed. It’s not just one line. It’s not just two lines. It’s all lines, and I firmly believe the North Stars have a chance of finishing the season averaging four goals per game.

Defence

The defence has not exceeded expectations but that is only because expectations were high to begin with.

All six starting D-men were returning in Kendall Fransoo, Conor Jensen, Levi Kleiboer, Ryan Rosenberg, Cody Spagrud, and Connor Sych, plus Connor Manegre has been a welcome addition due to his physical game.

The North Stars have allowed a league low 25.2 shots against per game, and their 2.21 goals-against per-game are the second lowest average in the league after Nipawin.

That kid of shot suppression is pretty ridiculous and might be tough to continue moving forward, considering the league as a whole is averaging 33.4 shots for per game. It could happen, but I’m not sure the North Stars can go an entire season without getting outshot once.

But remember this defensive core is just as deep as the forward group, and most of them have shown an ability to play a two-way game, especially with the emergence of Fransoo’s offensive game. Fransoo’s 20 points are sixth in the league amongst defensive men, and the captain only tallied 23 points all of last year.

So although shot suppression like this won’t continue, it’s very likely the North Stars will have allowed the fewest goals in the league once the season is over and done with.

Goaltending

Joel Gryzbowski has had one bad game all year. His 1.85 goals-against-average is first in the league.

Taryn Kotchorek had two bad games all year. His 2.05 goals-against-average is third in the league.

That’s all you really need to know about the goaltending – both netminders don’t face a lot of rubber but both are incredibly consistent. Coach Nate Bedford hasn’t had to start either of them in back to back games all season long.

Again and again they’ve also shown an ability to make the timely saves, which goes a long way for team confidence.

Kotchorek had vital experience last season but Grybowski is a 17-year-old rookie. The important thing is neither one of them will be relied on to start too many games, because they can simply alternate for the rest of the year.

It’s a great situation to have and there’s no reason to believe that GAA can’t stay this low for the final 29 games.

Second half games to circle on your calendar

I firmly believe the North Stars will continue their strong play and I also think there will be regression from Estevan, currently in second in the SJHL. Flin Flon is 8-1-0-1 in their last 10 and looks dangerous but the North Stars should be able to hold them off for first place.

Those two teams – the Bruins and the Bombers – are the games you won’t want to miss. Estevan and Battlefords seem to have started a new rivalry after the North Stars won 10-3 in Estevan’s barn earlier this season, because the bad blood from that game continued in the North Stars 8-6 loss on Nov. 19.

Unfortunately Estevan and Battlefords only face off one more time this year and it’s in Estevan on Jan. 6. But it’s still a game you’ll want to tune in to.

Luckily, the Flin Flon Bombers come to town in just a couple weeks time, and the double header is destined to be a can’t miss event – Wednesday, Dec. 14 and Friday, Dec. 16.

Circle your calendars now, because you won’t want to miss out.

Nathan Kanter is battlefordsNOW’s sports reporter and voice of the Battlefords North Stars. He can be reached at Nathan.kanter@jpbg.ca or tweet him @NathanKanter11

by Nathan Kanter

COLUMN: Evaluating the North Stars season at the halfway mark

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