By Geoff Smirh

Spring expected to be mild, but could still surprise

Mar 30, 2016 | 4:31 PM

Environment Canada’s senior climatologist has one saying that he says you can live by: “’Til April’s dead, change not a thread.”

In short, that means we may not have seen the last snowfall or cold weather of the season, despite the more spring-like weather that has arrived to close out March.

David Phillips said anything is still possible.

“In fact, in North Battleford, typically about twelve percent of your annual snowfall occurs after the 1st of April,” Phillips said.

But Phillips points out that kind of snowfall doesn’t stick around, and in fact, the high water content can be a “gift” for producers.

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“I don’t think any growers would turn down snow in April. It’s almost like irrigation from the atmosphere,” he said. “It’s not as if it’s there for the long haul. I mean, you know it’s not going to be there three or four days from now.”

Looking back, Phillips says it was Canada’s second warmest winter in 70 years, and the third warmest Prairie winter on record, thanks to El Niño. He says it’s especially unusual to have it persistently mild, instead of one or two warm months. Overall, there were perhaps a dozen very cold days instead of a more typical 30-50.

He said that means growers had a pretty good winter, ranchers had no real hardships, and everyone saved on home heating costs.

In the Battlefords area Phillips says March temperatures were about three degrees above normal, with nearly double the normal precipitation. After a dry start to the winter, soil moisture is at or above normal in the region. At the same time, spring flooding is not expected.

The outlook suggests that even as El Niño dies out, April will be a little milder than normal, though not record-setting for this region. While some people might think they’ll pay later for nice weather now, Phillips argues nature doesn’t always even out that way.

But he says we can get surprises as well – “prairie whitewashers.”

“When the air mass gets a little moist and bumps into the cold air, you can get these heavy doses of snow,” Phillips explained. “But as I say, they’re not lasting and they don’t always occur.”

gsmith@jpbg.ca
Twitter: @smithco